Archive for August, 2009

Housing Affordability Continues To Hover Near Highest Level In 18 Years

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

August 19, 2009 – Bolstered by affordable interest rates and low prices, nationwide housing affordability during the second quarter of 2009 continued to hover near its highest level since the series began 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.

The HOI showed that 72.3 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the second quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, down only slightly from the record-high 72.5 percent during the previous quarter and up from 55.0 percent during the second quarter of 2008.

“The increase in affordability – along with the $8,000 federal tax credit for home buyers – is stimulating demand, particularly among young, first-time buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “But to keep the recent upturn in home sales going into next year, Congress will need to extend the tax credit for another year and make it available to all buyers in an effort to encourage activity in the trade-up market.”

Robson noted that the tax credit, which expires on Nov. 30, is currently limited to just buyers purchasing their first home.

Indianapolis, once again, was the most affordable major housing market in the country during the second quarter. Almost 95 percent of all homes sold were affordable to households earning the area’s median family income of $68,100. Indianapolis has now topped the affordability list 16 consecutive quarters.

Also near the top of the list of the most affordable major metro housing markets were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich.; Dayton, Ohio; and Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.

Several smaller housing markets posted even higher affordability scores than Indianapolis, with Kokomo, Ind. outscoring all others. There, almost 98 percent of homes sold during the second quarter of 2009 were affordable to median-income earners. Other small housing markets ahead of Indianapolis on the affordability scale included Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.; Mansfield, Ohio; Elkhart-Goshen, Ind.; Lima, Ohio; and Bay City, Mich.

New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., where just over 21 percent of all homes sold during the period were affordable to those earning the median income of $64,800, was once again the nation’s least affordable major housing market in the second quarter. This was the New York metro area’s fifth consecutive appearance at the bottom of the list. Other major metro areas near the bottom of the affordability chart included San Francisco; Honolulu; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; and Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.

Among smaller metro areas, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. was the least affordable market, followed by Ocean City, N.J.; Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif.; Flagstaff, Ariz.; and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif., respectively.

Please visit www.nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to families earning that area’s median income during a specific quarter.

Prices of new and existing homes sold are collected from actual court records by First American Real Estate Solutions, a marketing company. Mortgage financing conditions incorporate interest rates on fixed- and adjustable-rate loans reported by the Federal Housing Finance Board.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.

Source: www.nahb.org

DV Wise

Single-Family Housing Starts And Permits Rise In July

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

August 18, 2009 – Production and permitting of new single-family homes continued on an upward trajectory in July, according to newly reported numbers from the U.S. Commerce Department today. Meanwhile, substantial declines on the multifamily side dragged down the overall numbers, with combined single- and multifamily starts down 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 units and combined single- and multifamily permits down 1.8 percent to a 560,000-unit rate.

“With the impending expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit at the end of November, July was probably the last month in which to get homes permitted and started in time for customers to take advantage of that valuable incentive,” noted Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “Builders were responding to improved demand related to that upcoming deadline and also to the first signs of an economic recovery.

However, it remains to be seen what happens after the tax credit expires, and the severe credit crunch that has curtailed many multifamily projects is looming over single-family builders as well. Congress and the Administration need to take action now in order to maintain the momentum toward a housing and economic recovery.”

“The latest report marks a fifth consecutive month of improvement in single-family housing starts and a fourth consecutive month of improvement in single-family permits,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is exactly in keeping with our latest member surveys, which indicate that builders are cautiously optimistic about single-family sales conditions over the next several months. That said, the significant drop-off in multifamily construction and permitting shown in recent months’ reports may be a harbinger of the financing challenges facing all home builders going forward. A severe lack of credit for acquisition, development and construction financing, along with other issues tied to low appraisals and the upcoming expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit, could derail the progress made so far. Government action is required to ensure that housing can help generate jobs and economic growth in the days ahead.”

NAHB is calling on Congress to extend the first-time home buyer tax credit for another year and to offer it to all income-eligible buyers. In addition, NAHB is urging Congress to help eliminate the credit crunch, correct faulty appraisal practices and expand Net Operating Loss tax provisions that can help avoid more layoffs.

Single-family housing starts posted a 1.7 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in July, while single-family permits registered a 5.8 percent gain to 458,000 units. Both of these were the highest levels registered since October of 2008. Meanwhile, multifamily starts tied a record low set in April of this year, falling 13.3 percent to a 91,000-unit rate. Multifamily permits fell 25.5 percent to 102,000 units.

Due largely to declining multifamily production numbers, housing starts fell in three out of four regions in July. The Northeast posted a 16.3 percent decline, while the South and West posted more moderate declines of 1.4 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. The Midwest was the only region to report a gain, of nearly 13 percent. Meanwhile, housing permits fell 5.2 percent in the Northeast and 9.2 percent in the South, but gained 14.1 percent in the Midwest and 7 percent in the West in July.

Source: www.nahb.org

DV Wise

BOOMER BUYERS CAUTIOUS ABOUT RETURNING TO THE HOUSING MARKET

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Single-Family Sales See Small Uptick; Future Expectations Stall

August 21, 2009 – Builder confidence for conditions in the market for 55+ housing rose slightly during the second quarter, according to the 55+ Single-family Housing Market Index released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The 55+ HMI notched up one point in the second quarter to a level of 15, due to a gain in the current single-family sales component of the index, which rose three points to 15.

The current condo index dropped a point to an index value of 12, while the rental index remained at 27. The future-expectations components of all three 55+ indicators – single-family for sale, condos and multifamily for-rent – fell during the second quarter. All sectors expressed some uncertainty over the next half-year as single-family builders’ expectations for the next six months fell from 26 to 23, the condo builders’ expectations index fell from 20 to 17, and the rental producers’ index of expectations fell from 35 to 32. As a further indicator of softness in the market, the level of traffic by prospective single-family buyers fell by two points over the previous quarter, from 14 to 12; condo traffic fell from 15 to 10.

“The survey shows that builders are still cautious,” said David Crowe, NAHB chief economist. “They may be seeing a few green shoots as some sales pick up, but builders understand that the consumer remains uncertain and awaits clearer signs of a housing and economic recovery.”

Both the single-family and multifamily 55+ HMIs are diffusion indexes, derived from quarterly surveys of builders and developers in which they rank their perceptions of the current conditions and expectations for the new future as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”  The responses are used to create a scale of 0 to 100, with a rating of 50 generally indicating that the number of positive responses is about the same as the number of negative responses.

As the market continues to absorb the existing homes being sold by seniors, builders who specialize in this sector expect to see pent-up demand for the user-friendly homes that these buyers and renters want.

“Most 55+ home buyers are current owners with considerable equity in their homes, but they are waiting to sell their home before committing to another purchase.  Historically low interest rates and good bargains in the new-and existing home markets will eventually bring these folks back into the market,” says Crowe. “Buying power has been scaled back by the financial crisis, but the demand for age-friendly housing is still there, and will be a big factor in housing for at least the next decade.” 

See this quarter’s numbers in chart form here. 

BOOMER BUYERS CAUTIOUS ABOUT RETURNING TO THE HOUSING MARKET  

Single-Family Sales See Small Uptick; Future Expectations Stall

August 21, 2009 – Builder confidence for conditions in the market for 55+ housing rose slightly during the second quarter, according to the 55+ Single-family Housing Market Index released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The 55+ HMI notched up one point in the second quarter to a level of 15, due to a gain in the current single-family sales component of the index, which rose three points to 15.

The current condo index dropped a point to an index value of 12, while the rental index remained at 27. The future-expectations components of all three 55+ indicators – single-family for sale, condos and multifamily for-rent – fell during the second quarter. All sectors expressed some uncertainty over the next half-year as single-family builders’ expectations for the next six months fell from 26 to 23, the condo builders’ expectations index fell from 20 to 17, and the rental producers’ index of expectations fell from 35 to 32. As a further indicator of softness in the market, the level of traffic by prospective single-family buyers fell by two points over the previous quarter, from 14 to 12; condo traffic fell from 15 to 10.

“The survey shows that builders are still cautious,” said David Crowe, NAHB chief economist. “They may be seeing a few green shoots as some sales pick up, but builders understand that the consumer remains uncertain and awaits clearer signs of a housing and economic recovery.”

Both the single-family and multifamily 55+ HMIs are diffusion indexes, derived from quarterly surveys of builders and developers in which they rank their perceptions of the current conditions and expectations for the new future as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”  The responses are used to create a scale of 0 to 100, with a rating of 50 generally indicating that the number of positive responses is about the same as the number of negative responses.

As the market continues to absorb the existing homes being sold by seniors, builders who specialize in this sector expect to see pent-up demand for the user-friendly homes that these buyers and renters want.

“Most 55+ home buyers are current owners with considerable equity in their homes, but they are waiting to sell their home before committing to another purchase.  Historically low interest rates and good bargains in the new-and existing home markets will eventually bring these folks back into the market,” says Crowe. “Buying power has been scaled back by the financial crisis, but the demand for age-friendly housing is still there, and will be a big factor in housing for at least the next decade.

Source: www.nahb.org

DV Wise