Housing Market: U.S. Home Prices Show Signs of Revival

June 2nd, 2010
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Spring is typically the season when people shop for houses. Many families like to complete their home purchase by the end of the summer so as to not uproot their children during the school year. And let’s face it: houses just look more enticing when flowers are out. But the real estate bust and economic downturn have made the past few housing hunting seasons rather slow. Some buyers have waited on the sidelines hoping prices had further to drop.
This year looks to be different. Already, falling interest rates, an improving economy and a last bit of economic stimulus are helping the housing market stage a revival. In April alone, sales of existing homes jumped 23% from a year ago, according to the trade organization National Association of Realtors. Sales of new homes rose even faster, up 48% from a year ago. What’s more, a growing number of economists believe the three-year plunge in housing prices is at an end. (See pictures of Americans in their homes.)
“Units, volume and sales price are up on all fronts,” says real estate broker Todd Hetherington, who is based in Alexandria, Va. “Houses that are priced well are getting multiple offers in the first week.”
For now, though, housing prices, like everything else, remain rocky. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller nationwide index, home prices fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, down from the already low levels where they stood at the end of 2009. And home prices may stay down for a little longer. The continued recent slide in the stock market is hurting consumer confidence and likely to make some people pause before buying a house. Foreclosures aren’t helping the housing market either. The government’s home-loan-modification programs have helped keep a relatively small amount of home owners out of foreclosure. But more repossessed homes are now starting to land on the market, driving up the number of houses for sale and holding down prices. In addition, some economists are concerned that the expiration of an $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers, which essentially ended in April, will hurt home sales. Indeed, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week mortgage applications for new home purchases fell to the lowest level since 1997. Lastly, mortgage credit remains tight, making it hard for some prospective home buyers to qualify for a loan. (See high-end homes that won’t sell.)
“We think the tax credit has dragged a lot of house sales forward, and we think we are going to pay for it,” says Jay Brinkmann, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. He expects home sales to drop 5% in the fall of 2010.
Nonetheless, a growing number of economists believe this spring could end up being the start of a sustained rebound in the housing market. The biggest driver of that rebound will likely be interest rates. Though rates were expected to rise this summer, the continuing problems in Europe are driving down rates in the U.S., which is still seen as a safe haven for investors. The result is that mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point in a year and are expected to continue to drop through the summer. In general, for every percentage-point decline in mortgage rates, houses effectively become 10% cheaper.
A recent study of 92 economists by financial-products firm MacroMarkets found that on average housing prices are expected to drop slightly in 2010 and begin rising again next year. That means that for the first time in years someone who buys a house this spring will most likely see their home appreciate in the next year. And rising housing prices, just like falling ones, tend to feed on themselves.
“Low interest rates will be a powerful incentive,” says William Hummer, chief economist for Wayne Hummer Investments. “People who want to be home owners will get back into the market.”

By STEPHEN GANDEL

www.dvwise.com

Top Forecasters See Housing, Economy on Upward Path

May 27th, 2010

According to NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “Home buyer tax credits clearly did their job and got people back into the marketplace.” And now that those credits are gone, the housing momentum is being carried forward by low interest rates, pent up household formations, stabilizing prices and budding employment growth. At the same time, factors that continue to drag on housing at this time include the critical shortage of credit for new and existing projects, competition from short sales and foreclosures, and regional economic disparities. Dave’s forecast anticipates 552,000 single-family housing starts in 2010, a 25% gain from last year’s 445,000-unit level. As for the multifamily sector, a shortage of available financing and a significant “shadow inventory” of homes lost to foreclosure are expected to keep starts activity there quite subdued this year, with an 18% decline to 93,000 units projected. However, in 2011, the sector should rebound to 150,000 units. NAHB’s forecast also calls for nationwide home prices to remain flat this year and post a modest increase in 2011.

Meanwhile, panelist Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he expects solid job growth to help buoy the housing recovery. He is anticipating average monthly job gains of 125,000 this year, 250,000 in 2011 and 300,000 in 2012. He also pegs GDP growth at 3% this year, approximately 4% in 2011 and close to 5% in 2012. Our other panelist, Macroeconomic Advisers President Chris Varvares, had a somewhat more optimistic outlook than Zandi, saying that GDP will rise 3.7% this year and that annual housing starts will hit about 1.2 million by year-end 2011. All of the panelists agreed that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates near rock-bottom levels through the end of this year, that the chance of a double-digit recession is fairly remote, and that policymakers will need to take action within the next two years to increase revenues and cut spending in order to keep the housing and economic recovery on track. For detailed coverage of the forecast conference, please see our press release and the next edition of Nation’s Building News Online. Contact: MondayMorningQuestions@nahb.org

Source:  NAHB

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Americans Practice Accidental Environmentalism

May 24th, 2010

According to the Eco Pulse 2010 market study recently released by green marketing and advertising agency the Shelton Group, American consumers have become less concerned about the environment, but more interested in energy efficiency as a way to save money. Saving money through energy efficiency has emerged as the primary driver of green purchases among consumers, outweighing feelings of personal responsibility for the state of the environment, the study found.

Nevertheless, energy efficiency for frugality’s sake still results in environmental benefits, in effect making many Americans what Eco Pulse’s researchers call “accidental environmentalists.”

“One of the most important findings is that people don’t go green to save the planet,” says Suzanne Shelton, president and CEO of the Shelton Group. “Particularly in the built environment, they go green to gain a sense of control, personal satisfaction, and comfort in their homes.”

Interest in green products has continued to rise steadily, despite declining motivation to “do the right thing” and “save the environment.” Out of the 1,000 people surveyed for Eco Pulse 2010, 64 percent say they are searching for greener products, a slight increase over last year. And the primary reason respondents say they’re buying green home improvement products is “to save money” (17 percent), compared with just 10 percent who are concerned about conserving natural resources and 8.6 percent concerned about their families’ exposure to toxins and chemicals.

More than half of respondents say they’re searching for greener appliances and about 44 percent express an interest in greener home improvement products such as windows, carpet, and insulation. Perhaps not surprisingly, those with children are more likely to be looking for green home improvement products (49 percent) than those with no children in their homes (41 percent). Economic conditions don’t appear to be dampening consumer interest in green products, either: 48 percent indicate they are buying the same number of green products despite the recession, and 21 percent say they are actually buying more.

This sustained interest in energy efficiency could be due to a combination of factors, such as rising energy costs and the American economy’s continuing troubles. But Shelton thinks a driving factor may be simply that consumers understand energy efficiency better than other green characteristics, such as indoor air quality and life cycle impact.

When asked what “green” means as applied to products, 69 percent of those surveyed chose the generic definition “environmentally friendly,” followed most closely by recycled/recyclable (45.5 percent) and energy-efficient (31 percent). Natural (26 percent), renewable (20 percent), and organic (20 percent) also were popular choices. Many of the qualities that have been getting the most play within the design and construction industry are concepts that consumers don’t grasp as well as they understand energy efficiency. Fewer consumers defined green as sustainable (12 percent), healthy (10.5 percent), bio-based (9 percent), carbon neutral (7 percent), and water conserving (4 percent).

Again, when consumers were asked for the top three criteria they use to determine whether a home improvement product is green, they overwhelmingly selected energy efficiency (43 percent) and Energy Star qualification (39 percent) as the No. 1 standard. Impact on health (24 percent) or indoor air quality (23 percent) ranked slightly lower, followed by recycled content (16 percent), sustainable material content (13 percent), and water-saving (8 percent).

In another study published by the Shelton Group in 2009, 72 percent of those surveyed said they were interested in owning or renting an energy-efficient home, but less than half said the same about owning or renting a green home.

“Consumers understand energy efficiency, and they know when they have it,” Shelton notes. “Green seems so esoteric to most people. Energy efficiency equals compromise, while green equals sacrifice and expense.”

To market products, home improvement services, or new homes as green is much less effective than a strategy that defines and details the benefits a consumer can expect to receive. “We would say, lead with energy efficiency if you can, then follow up with the health benefits. If you don’t have energy efficiency as a quality of your product, then hammer the healthy benefits,” Shelton explains.

Nevertheless, there is increasing understanding among consumers that a green home also is healthy. “What we found is that anyone in the study groups who had a personal experience with a health-related issue that could be exacerbated by their environment or environmental problems is far more educated and is changing their behaviors,” Shelton says. “And as we see more and more environmental problems lead to more respiratory problems, I think we’ll see consumers getting savvier about how a green home is a healthier home.”

Eco Pulse 2010 also found that most consumers depend on a product’s label (40 percent) and its content/ingredients/energy-savings package information (38 percent) to tell them that a product is green.

Of the 21 percent of people who say they rely on independent third-party product certifications, 54 percent selected Energy Star as the best third-party certifier, followed by the Green Good Housekeeping Seal (32 percent), and Consumer Reports (30 percent). According to the study, there is much less recognition and awareness of Greenguard (10 percent), Green Seal (9 percent), and LEED (8 percent). Even less recognized were the Sustainable Forestry Initiative, Forest Stewardship Council, Cradle to Cradle, and WaterSense.

“Certifications are not as important or as big a driver as all the people who run certification programs would like them to be,” Shelton says.

Notably, though, respondents profiled as “active” green product buyers were more likely than the overall group to select the less well-known certifications. For example, 15 percent of active green buyers selected LEED certification compared with just 8 percent of the overall group.

The abundance of green product certifications now operating on the market—for everything from construction materials and homes to personal care items and supermarket produce—is creating competition and increasing the potential for consumer confusion about precisely what each program certifies and how trustworthy it is. But the study’s researchers predict that eventually weaker certifications will be weeded out as awareness and understanding grows, leaving those that have built consumer confidence in their brands.

While energy efficiency currently is the biggest driver of green purchases, Shelton notes that it still ranks low on the list of home improvements that consumers would choose to make if they had ready cash. The firm’s most recent Energy Pulse study found that while energy efficiency improvements were top of the list in 2008 when the economy and the housing industry were reeling, in 2009 consumers preferred aesthetic improvements over efficiency, largely because they had retrenched severely, were spending much more time in their homes, and wanted to look at something pretty.

“You might wonder why they’re choosing aesthetics and things that won’t save them money when we’re in a recession, rather than energy-saving features, but it’s about control and feeling comfortable,” Shelton says.

Plus, most homeowners believe their homes are still using the same amount of energy they used five years ago, despite higher costs. “If they don’t think there’s a problem, why would they invest in energy efficiency improvements? This is a tremendous education opportunity,” she adds.

Source: CUSTOM HOME Magazine
Publication date: May 19, 2010
By Stephani L. Miller

http://www.customhomeonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=204&articleID=1286382&artnum=1

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