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Top Forecasters See Housing, Economy on Upward Path

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

According to NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, “Home buyer tax credits clearly did their job and got people back into the marketplace.” And now that those credits are gone, the housing momentum is being carried forward by low interest rates, pent up household formations, stabilizing prices and budding employment growth. At the same time, factors that continue to drag on housing at this time include the critical shortage of credit for new and existing projects, competition from short sales and foreclosures, and regional economic disparities. Dave’s forecast anticipates 552,000 single-family housing starts in 2010, a 25% gain from last year’s 445,000-unit level. As for the multifamily sector, a shortage of available financing and a significant “shadow inventory” of homes lost to foreclosure are expected to keep starts activity there quite subdued this year, with an 18% decline to 93,000 units projected. However, in 2011, the sector should rebound to 150,000 units. NAHB’s forecast also calls for nationwide home prices to remain flat this year and post a modest increase in 2011.

Meanwhile, panelist Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he expects solid job growth to help buoy the housing recovery. He is anticipating average monthly job gains of 125,000 this year, 250,000 in 2011 and 300,000 in 2012. He also pegs GDP growth at 3% this year, approximately 4% in 2011 and close to 5% in 2012. Our other panelist, Macroeconomic Advisers President Chris Varvares, had a somewhat more optimistic outlook than Zandi, saying that GDP will rise 3.7% this year and that annual housing starts will hit about 1.2 million by year-end 2011. All of the panelists agreed that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates near rock-bottom levels through the end of this year, that the chance of a double-digit recession is fairly remote, and that policymakers will need to take action within the next two years to increase revenues and cut spending in order to keep the housing and economic recovery on track. For detailed coverage of the forecast conference, please see our press release and the next edition of Nation’s Building News Online. Contact: MondayMorningQuestions@nahb.org.

Source: NAHB

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Posted in Summer of 2009 | 2 Comments »

Housing Affordability Continues To Hover Near Highest Level In 18 Years

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

August 19, 2009 – Bolstered by affordable interest rates and low prices, nationwide housing affordability during the second quarter of 2009 continued to hover near its highest level since the series began 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.

The HOI showed that 72.3 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the second quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, down only slightly from the record-high 72.5 percent during the previous quarter and up from 55.0 percent during the second quarter of 2008.

“The increase in affordability – along with the $8,000 federal tax credit for home buyers – is stimulating demand, particularly among young, first-time buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “But to keep the recent upturn in home sales going into next year, Congress will need to extend the tax credit for another year and make it available to all buyers in an effort to encourage activity in the trade-up market.”

Robson noted that the tax credit, which expires on Nov. 30, is currently limited to just buyers purchasing their first home.

Indianapolis, once again, was the most affordable major housing market in the country during the second quarter. Almost 95 percent of all homes sold were affordable to households earning the area’s median family income of $68,100. Indianapolis has now topped the affordability list 16 consecutive quarters.

Also near the top of the list of the most affordable major metro housing markets were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.; Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich.; Dayton, Ohio; and Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.

Several smaller housing markets posted even higher affordability scores than Indianapolis, with Kokomo, Ind. outscoring all others. There, almost 98 percent of homes sold during the second quarter of 2009 were affordable to median-income earners. Other small housing markets ahead of Indianapolis on the affordability scale included Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.; Mansfield, Ohio; Elkhart-Goshen, Ind.; Lima, Ohio; and Bay City, Mich.

New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., where just over 21 percent of all homes sold during the period were affordable to those earning the median income of $64,800, was once again the nation’s least affordable major housing market in the second quarter. This was the New York metro area’s fifth consecutive appearance at the bottom of the list. Other major metro areas near the bottom of the affordability chart included San Francisco; Honolulu; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; and Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.

Among smaller metro areas, San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif. was the least affordable market, followed by Ocean City, N.J.; Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif.; Flagstaff, Ariz.; and Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, Calif., respectively.

Please visit www.nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.

EDITOR’S NOTE: The NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to families earning that area’s median income during a specific quarter.

Prices of new and existing homes sold are collected from actual court records by First American Real Estate Solutions, a marketing company. Mortgage financing conditions incorporate interest rates on fixed- and adjustable-rate loans reported by the Federal Housing Finance Board.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.

Source: www.nahb.org

DV Wise

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Posted in National Association of Home Builders | No Comments »

Single-Family Housing Starts And Permits Rise In July

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

August 18, 2009 – Production and permitting of new single-family homes continued on an upward trajectory in July, according to newly reported numbers from the U.S. Commerce Department today. Meanwhile, substantial declines on the multifamily side dragged down the overall numbers, with combined single- and multifamily starts down 1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 units and combined single- and multifamily permits down 1.8 percent to a 560,000-unit rate.

“With the impending expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit at the end of November, July was probably the last month in which to get homes permitted and started in time for customers to take advantage of that valuable incentive,” noted Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “Builders were responding to improved demand related to that upcoming deadline and also to the first signs of an economic recovery.

However, it remains to be seen what happens after the tax credit expires, and the severe credit crunch that has curtailed many multifamily projects is looming over single-family builders as well. Congress and the Administration need to take action now in order to maintain the momentum toward a housing and economic recovery.”

“The latest report marks a fifth consecutive month of improvement in single-family housing starts and a fourth consecutive month of improvement in single-family permits,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is exactly in keeping with our latest member surveys, which indicate that builders are cautiously optimistic about single-family sales conditions over the next several months. That said, the significant drop-off in multifamily construction and permitting shown in recent months’ reports may be a harbinger of the financing challenges facing all home builders going forward. A severe lack of credit for acquisition, development and construction financing, along with other issues tied to low appraisals and the upcoming expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit, could derail the progress made so far. Government action is required to ensure that housing can help generate jobs and economic growth in the days ahead.”

NAHB is calling on Congress to extend the first-time home buyer tax credit for another year and to offer it to all income-eligible buyers. In addition, NAHB is urging Congress to help eliminate the credit crunch, correct faulty appraisal practices and expand Net Operating Loss tax provisions that can help avoid more layoffs.

Single-family housing starts posted a 1.7 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in July, while single-family permits registered a 5.8 percent gain to 458,000 units. Both of these were the highest levels registered since October of 2008. Meanwhile, multifamily starts tied a record low set in April of this year, falling 13.3 percent to a 91,000-unit rate. Multifamily permits fell 25.5 percent to 102,000 units.

Due largely to declining multifamily production numbers, housing starts fell in three out of four regions in July. The Northeast posted a 16.3 percent decline, while the South and West posted more moderate declines of 1.4 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. The Midwest was the only region to report a gain, of nearly 13 percent. Meanwhile, housing permits fell 5.2 percent in the Northeast and 9.2 percent in the South, but gained 14.1 percent in the Midwest and 7 percent in the West in July.